Everyone would agree that high housing prices create a challenge. Their effects range from limiting the ability of the kids to get out of the parental home to the ability of an economy to attract and retain a diverse workforce.
Here in the Lower Mainland, the overwhelming perception is that young families are being driven out of the region due to prohibitively high housing costs; another is that people rule out coming to the region altogether for the same reason.
While opinions on the issue abound, little data exists to directly show the extent to which this is the case. One data source that can be considered for some indirect insight is Statistics Canada’s Annual Demographic Statistics publication, which provides estimates of the number of people by age moving to and from Canada’s metropolitan regions each year.
Although the data doesn’t tell us why someone moved, current perceptions suggest that rapidly increasing housing costs would reduce the share of people in the younger age groups moving to a region and, by extension, increase the share of those moving away.
For Metro Vancouver, Statistics Canada’s data shows that in the early 1990s, of an average of 45,700 people who left the region for other parts of B.C. annually, roughly 34% were between the ages of 25 and 39. By early 2000, of the 24,200 people who were leaving the region each year for other parts of B.C., the share of movers between 25 and 39 had declined to 29%. This decade was a period of relatively slowly growing housing prices in the region. Average Metro Vancouver sales prices grew by 2.1% annually (once adjusted for inflation, average sales prices in 2001 of $346,470 were actually below 1992’s $368,500).
With slowly growing housing prices, all other things equal, this period should have been a period when the share of young families moving from the region declined as increasing housing prices would not have been pushing people out. This certainly appears to be the case.
Over the following decade, the picture of house price increases changes dramatically, with average annual sales price growth in the range of 8.1% (7% in real terms). Interestingly, the same cannot be said for the age composition of migrants: of an average of 20,700 people moving from Metro Vancouver to other parts of B.C. annually since 2009, the average share of those between the ages of 25 and 39 remained relatively constant, in the range of 29%.
A similar pattern is seen if the reverse flows are considered: of an average of 20,000 people moving into Metro Vancouver from other parts of B.C. during the early 2000s, 31% were between the ages of 25 and 39. By 2012, of an average of 18,700 intraprovincial migrants, a slightly greater share (32%) were between the ages of 25 and 39.
So while the perception is that rapidly increasing housing prices over the past decade are driving people out of Metro Vancouver and limiting our ability to attract young families, StatsCan’s Annual Demographic Statistics data shows that the proportion of those between the ages of 25 and 39 has either remained relatively constant (intraprovincial out-migrants) or increased (intraprovincial in-migrants). If the flow of those moving to and from other parts of Canada is considered (interprovincial migration), there’s a similar pattern: the average share of 25- to 39-year-olds moving into Metro Vancouver from other parts of Canada over the past decade increased to 39% from 38%, while the average share of 25- to 39-year-olds moving to other provinces was relatively constant in the range of 40%.
Although we can only consider the in-movers through the most recent census and national household survey data (as it is a home-based survey of residents in 2011), five-year mobility data shows a similar pattern: while 33% of those who moved to the region between 1996 and 2001 from other parts of B.C. were between the ages of 25 and 39, their share increased to 38% of those moving to the region between 2006 and 2011. Of those moving from other provinces, 25- to 29-year-olds also represented an increasing share (46% to 47%).
Although this data gives no indication of the reasons why people are moving to and from this or other regions, nor does it speak to the real challenges that some have in finding adequate and affordable housing, it does add another piece to the puzzle of the Lower Mainland’s housing market. It also points to much more research being required on housing costs and affordability and how these issues affect the regional economy. •
