The number of home sales across Greater Vancouver fell 5.2% in 2016, and a further 11.4% drop is anticipated for the total of this year, according to a British Columbia Real Estate Association forecast released August 31.
Last year, 40,880 units sold in the region, and this year, the number of units is forecast to drop to 36,200. A further 0.6% drop is forecast for 2018.
The decrease will not come from poor economic conditions across the province, according to BCREA chief economist Cameron Muir, but rather will be driven by supply issues.
“British Columbia’s position as the best performing economy in the country is bolstering consumer confidence and housing demand,” Muir said. “Strong economic growth, a marked increase in migrants from other provinces and the aging of the millennial generation is supporting a heightened level of housing transactions.
“However, a limited supply of homes for sale is causing home prices to rise significantly in many regions, particularly in the Lower Mainland condominium market.”
Prices in 2016 jumped 12.7% to an average of $1,017,228. This year, the forecast is for another 2.2% jump to $1,040,000, and next year, a 2.9% increase (to $1,070,000) is expected.
Across B.C. as a whole, the number of units changing hands this year is expected to drop 10.1% compared with 2016, to 100,880. In 2018, a further 1.9% drop is anticipated.
The average sales price across the province this year is expected to rise 3.5% to $715,190, according to the forecast, and an additional 4.1% (to $744,660) in 2018. According to the BCREA, however, the provincial average price will be skewed downward due to the mix and location of sales.
“Fewer detached home sales relative to attached and apartment properties and a larger proportion of home sales occurring outside the Metro Vancouver region are operating to hold back the provincial average price,” the association said in a press release.
“Home prices in 10 of the 11 real estate board areas are forecast to rise at a higher rate than the provincial average.”
@EmmaHampelBIV
