The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is forecasting stronger commercial construction next year, based on what it calls its “commercial leading indicator.”
The indicator is running 0.8% above the same period last year, at 114.1.
BCREA economist Brendon Ogmundsen said the indicator, which tracks retail sales and office employment, points to “an improving economy and stronger commercial real estate action in 2014.”
The recovery would be welcomed. Although total non-residential construction permits in B.C. increased in September from August, the outlook for the year is not positive, according to Statistics Canada.
In September, municipalities issued permits valued at $326.5 million, marking a monthly gain of 10%. Stronger public-sector activity offset a decline in the industrial space. Volume has generally climbed since the end of 2012.
Despite this positive trajectory, year-to-date activity was still down 25% from the first three quarters of last year, reflecting fewer major project starts. Annual non-resident permit volume in 2013 is forecast to settle at 20% below last year’s levels, but remain above levels seen between 2009 and 2011.
