Residential outlook to ‘remain strong,’ CMHC says

Stable market

Nary a negative word was said regarding the outlook for B.C. housing activity over the next two years at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s (CMHC) annual housing outlook conference on November 4.

CMHC analysts were more tortoise-like than bullish, so far as they heralded a steady market over the next 24 months, disturbed only by the potential of interest rate hikes in late 2015 and the impact affordability – or its lack – could have on transactions.

“Housing demand will remain strong,” opined Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist, in an overview of national activity.

“Housing starts will follow resale activity,” Carol Frketich, B.C. regional economist, said of the provincial situation.

“What we’re seeing is a very balanced housing market,” concluded Robyn Adamache, senior market analyst for Vancouver with CMHC.

Housing starts in metropolitan Vancouver are expected to hit 18,700 in 2015, down from a forecast of 18,900 for 2014. Projections peg them to reach 19,250 in 2016.

Voter’s market

Veteran condo marketer Bob Rennie was the keynote speaker at the CMHC housing outlook conference, and he dished his own take on Vancouver’s residential market as well as the state of discourse regarding housing issues in advance of civic elections on November 15.

“‘I am pro-affordability, and I am anti-development.’ I think that will get you elected today, and they don’t make sense – the two can’t go together,” he said.

Sizing up the main contenders for Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson’s job, Rennie dissed – without naming names – Non-Partisan Association mayoral candidate Kirk LaPointe for shying away from meeting with developers.

“He doesn’t live in Vancouver, vote in Vancouver or pay taxes in Vancouver and has never held political office,” Rennie said. “Not meeting with developers says to me, if elected as mayor, he will stay out of touch.”

Coalition of Progressive Electors (COPE) contender Meena Wong also came under fire for proposals such as a duty on vacant homes that would interfere with property rights.

“If we have a problem with vacant west-side homes, let’s deal with it as a community improvement issue, not the colour of someone’s skin,” Rennie said.

Rennie also pushed back against developers critical of burdensome community amenity contributions, which are assessed to fund community amenities. Reducing them could leave municipalities passing costs onto taxpayers, Rennie said, creating the politically unpalatable and divisive situation Melbourne faces.

“We are not going to solve homelessness, affordable rental or family housing without taking the planning and political risks,” he summarized. “We really need parental guidance out there, is my view. The city of Vancouver and every city and municipality is going to need to champion some form of development.”

Giver’s market

Whatever worries plague the Vancouver housing market, at least there’s housing here to worry about.

That’s not always the case in other countries, where having a roof over your head (let alone four walls around you) is a greater concern. Without stable housing – as advocates in Vancouver know – multiple other basic needs risk not being met.

Providing stable housing in some of the world’s poorest communities is the goal of Vancouver-based World Housing community contribution company, a social enterprise launched last year that seeks partnerships with developers to build a unit of housing in less developed communities for each unit developed elsewhere.

Its first partner is Westbank Properties Corp., which is supporting the development of one unit of housing in Stung Meanchey, Cambodia, for each unit sold at Vancouver House – the 52-storey collaboration between Westbank and Danish architect Bjarke Ingels.

Sales to date of units in the 378-unit tower have resulted in gifts of 120 homes, while an additional 70 homes are built and awaiting donation.

The homes are 132 square feet each and elevated six feet off the ground. The cost of approximately $2,500 apiece includes a common washroom for every six dwellings.

Occupancy is overseen through the Cambodian Children’s Fund (CCF), which has secured leases of up to 20 years for the home sites.

Recipients are typically the families or guardians of schoolchildren. Children must attend school and be well cared for – not abused – for the families to be eligible.

“It makes a massive difference. It’s one of the many motivators to get the child into school on a regular basis,” said Scott Neeson, CCF founder and executive director.

World Housing expects to announce a second project in Taiwan later this month and is discussing partnerships with Canada and U.S. developers active in the San Diego, San Francisco and Waikiki markets. •