A Simon Fraser University report released May 2 claims that there is at least a 93% probability of an oil tanker spill if Enbridge's proposed Northern Gateway pipeline goes ahead.
The report analyzed three components of the $6.5 billion megaproject:
- the pipeline through B.C.;
- the marine terminal in Kitimat; and
- the increase in tanker traffic.
It followed an oil-spill risk-assessment model that the U.S. government uses and determined that the chance of a tanker spill during the 30- to 50-year operating life of the project is between 93% and 99%.
That's dramatically more than the 18% spill risk that Enbridge has estimated, according to the report's author Tom Gunton, director of SFU's School of Resource and Environmental Management.
Guntan was a deputy environment minister during former B.C. Premier Mike Harcourt's administration.
The report said, "The extended sensitivity analysis for terminal spills determines that the rate of spills in a 50-year period could range between 1.2 and 3.4 spills for any size terminal spill, significantly higher than Enbridge's estimate of less than one spill in 50 years."
