A multi-university, provincewide think tank is launching a comprehensive review of all pending LNG projects in B.C. to provide the critical "big-picture value" it believes the current LNG debate lacks.
The Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions (PICS) – a consortium of climate scientists and students from the University of Victoria, University of British Columbia, Simon Fraser University and University of Northern British Columbia – will lead the study.
Participating is a handpicked group of engineers, economists, sociologists and biologists from across the province all seeking to answer one key question: what is LNG development really worth to B.C.?
Thomas Pedersen, executive director of PICS, told Business in Vancouver that the critical component to his group's work will be weighing the positive aspects of LNG development such as jobs and tax revenue against environmental negatives such as the significant energy capacity needed for natural-gas extraction and liquefaction.
"It's easy for the government to say it's jobs, but the flipside is the cost. What is the value of the last mountain caribou? What is the monetary value of the second- last mountain caribou? This not a part of the equation we use when discussing the profits with society," said Pedersen.
"We need to understand these long-term implications. This is a really complicated issue. But we're well poised to be the group in B.C. to take the big-picture look at LNG."
Pedersen added that other questions being examined include the effects of B.C. exporting LNG to coal-burning countries such as China, a plus for those concerned about the environment, versus sending LNG to countries like Japan, which is reducing its dependence on nuclear energy.
PICS' announcement of the sweeping study follows its annual conference held June 13 at SFU's Wosk Centre for Dialogue.
The theme of this year's conference – which featured high-profile panellists from the energy, academic and political spheres – was "Finding a Middle Ground" between the often competing interests of energy development and environmental conservation.
Preston Manning, former leader of the Reform Party and speaker at the PICS conference, echoed Pedersen's sentiments. The cumulative effects of any resource development must be understood before approval or investment is made. Without it, he told BIV, "We can't talk about energy without the environment, and vice-versa. This is not a sequential thing, it is simultaneous. You don't propose any energy initiative without extensive environmental measures.
"And the realization is going to come from the non-governmental sector, the science groups. Then you tell government, 'This is what we've found.'"
LNG development a "keystone" for B.C.: Conference Board of Canada
The looming LNG export boom should give B.C. residents plenty of reason to be excited, according to a senior Conference Board of Canada economist.
China's LNG consumption is expected to double in the next 20 years, and proposals from Shell, Petronas, BG Group and other companies hoping to build LNG plants and pipelines is gaining momentum.
"LNG is a good resource to have. It's unlikely we will ever not have someone to sell it to," said Todd Crawford.
"You see the economic investment, and it's hard not to support that."
But Crawford cautioned that extra investment might have to be made in the countries importing Canadian LNG. In Japan, for instance, LNG costs more than four times what it does in Canada. To ensure long-term trade, some financial help may be expected.
Currently, Canada pays about $3.65 per 1,000 cubic feet for LNG. Japan pays $18.
"The question might become, 'Can we meet in the middle?'" said Crawford.
"Countries know we pay less, and we're developing [LNG], so they might look to save on their end."
Due to expected investments in the natural-gas industry between 2012 and 2035, GDP across Canada is expected to increase by $364.3 billion. Nearly 75% of that jump will occur in Alberta and B.C. Investments will also create an estimated 3.2 million years of employment in Canada and tax collection (corporate, indirect, personal and federal taxes) of $127 billion cumulatively.
