Even under a business-friendly Liberal government, the $6 billion Northern Gateway pipeline appeared to be in trouble, if not altogether doomed, along with 3,000 construction jobs, $1.2 billion in taxes and more than $800 million on spending on goods and services.
But under an NDP government, not only is the Northern Gateway a no-go, but a $5.4 billion plan by Kinder Morgan Inc. (NYSE:KMI) to twin its existing Trans Mountain pipeline also looks doomed. That is, unless Ottawa forces the projects on the province – something few believe would happen.
That’s an additional 4,000 construction jobs, $7 billion in capital and operational spending and an additional $22 million in tax revenue that may not materialize in B.C. under an NDP government.
There are concerns that other major job creation projects – from the Raven coal mine on Vancouver Island to the Site C dam – could also be killed, deferred or otherwise placed in limbo under an NDP government.
And despite assurances the NDP supports a nascent liquefied natural gas industry, it has been sending mixed signals to the industry.
The NDP has made clear its opposition to the Northern Gateway pipeline from the outset, but party leader Adrian Dix only recently announced his government would also oppose the Kinder Morgan project.
“Of course, we have to wait to see a formal application,” Dix said. “But I don’t think the Port of Metro Vancouver, as busy a port as it is … should become a major oil export port.”
Tom Sigurdson, executive director for BC Building Trades Council, which represents the thousands of unionized workers who hoped to build the two pipelines, was dismayed to hear Dix prejudge the project before it has even had a chance to make it to an environmental review.
“I was disappointed that the process was interrupted,” he said. “I think the process should have gone through. That’s why you have a process. We want those jobs. We know that the transportation of commodities is very important, and that pipelines are the safest way to bring the commodity to market.”
As for the natural gas and LNG industries, the NDP has sent mixed messages. Its platform supports the development of an LNG industry, but it is calling for a review of hydraulic fracturing.
NDP candidate Charlie Wyse (Cariboo-Chilcotin) said an NDP government would impose a two-year moratorium on fracking – something Dix quickly clarified as a candidate who “misspoke.”
Even if there is no moratorium, a review adds a level of uncertainty at a time when gas prices are low, other competitors are racing to lock up long-term LNG contracts in Asia, and producers face the prospect of an additional $100 million a year in costs from the expanded carbon tax.
“The industry has been operating in an environment of extremely low prices, so to hit the industry with an additional cost I think does run some risk of rendering some of the production activity in northeastern B.C. uneconomic,” said Jock Finlayson, executive vice-president of the Business Council of British Columbia.
Although not mentioned specifically in the NDP platform, one megaproject that could be deferred is the Site C dam, which would cost $7.9 billion to build, generating an average of 800 jobs under construction.
“I would not foreclose on Site C, but clearly we don’t need it in the foreseeable future,” NDP energy critic John Horgan told Business in Vancouver in February.
As for mines, the NDP platform is generally supportive of the industry, although at least one proposed mine – Compliance Coal Corp.’s Raven metallurgical coal mine on Vancouver Island – has been in the crosshairs of NDP MLA Scott Fraser, who has presented a 5,000-name petition in the Legislature calling for a halt to the project.
