The cost of meat is expected to increase 7-9% overall this year, according to Dalhousie University’s mid-year food price report.
This is up from the university’s December 2016 forecast of a 4-6% increase for 2017.
“Farmgate prices for cattle have gone up on average by 15% but have not affected beef retail prices, at least not yet,” the report said.
“However, we have noticed that some cuts have increased in price by as much as 20% since January.”
Using spot checks in January and May, Dalhousie said the prices of certain meats have increased up to 11%. The cost of striploin grilling steak, lean ground beef and pork sirloin chop roast in particular have already seen price increases, the report said, but the biggest increases are yet to come.
Hog futures are also expected to drive prices upward, but there has so far not been any evidence of this happening.
“Unlike beef, we could see pork prices at retail rebound much sooner, perhaps as soon as early fall.”
The report said the price of chicken will remain steady this year.
Fish and seafood prices are forecast to increase 1-3% in 2017, which is a downgrade from the 4-6% previously forecast in December.
The price of vegetables is expected to grow 2-4% this year, down from December’s forecast of 4-6%. The price of some produce is expected to increase more than previously anticipated, as wet weather in California has led to crop losses.
“Lower inventories, coupled with higher demand for greens in the spring, increased prices for lettuce, celery and other produce,” the report said.
The report is calling lettuce “this year’s cauliflower,” referring to a 2016 spike in the price of that particular crop, but unlike cauliflower, lettuce’s price increase is unrelated to a drop in the Canadian dollar.
The projects of potential price increases follow a period of food deflation in Western Canada.
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