Not even Statistics Canada, with its rock-solid reputation, is immune to an occasional slip-up. They happen – but when they're made in the widely watched and market-moving Labour Force Survey (LFS), mistakes are magnified tenfold.
The agency's difficult week came to an end as it re-released its LFS results after being forced to throw out the previous estimates due to internal processing errors. The revisions were big – instead of a national gain of 200 jobs, revised estimates popped significantly higher by 41,700 persons — signalling a stronger performance in the economy to start the third quarter. Upward revisions were particularly strong in Ontario, which gained nearly 40,000 jobs rather than the 15,100 originally reported.
On the West Coast, the labour market performed better than initially reported. Instead of shedding 5,300 jobs in July, B.C. managed to hold on to June's modest gain but was unable to build much in the way of traction. Total employment was unchanged from June at a seasonally adjusted 2.326 million persons.
Unemployment fell to 5.9%. Top-line employment remained soft, but the numbers point to some improvement in job quality. Full-time employment grew 0.8% from June, and while this was offset by a decline in the number of part-time jobs, it points to an increase in real employment and hours worked in the economy. Meanwhile, youth employment fell less than the previous estimate.
On the industry side, construction and manufacturing were the key contributors to a 0.1% decline in goods-sector employment from June. Service-sector employment was flat, but trade-related activity and business services were a drag. Significant job growth was observed in finance/insurance/real estate and agriculture.
The positive revision to July's LFS numbers does not change the general theme of the labour market. The hiring environment in B.C. remains soft.
Employers remain hesitant to add to their payrolls, but we do expect some pickup in the second half of the year. Broader economic growth is driving a rise in exports, while small-business confidence has shown signs of improving – a precursor for hiring. Annual employment growth is forecast to reach about 0.8%. •
