Think that Apple’s year-old iPad is a cool toy meant for technology enthusiasts? Think again.
Anyone who fails to see the iPad as the front edge of a massive shift in consumer use of technology is asleep at the switch.
As a fool who paid top dollar for a first-generation iPod in 2001, I’ve experienced light-speed market adoption of technology and the seismic shifts that can result.
For a year, the iPad has flown off shelves. Over 80 new tablet devices were introduced at the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show (CES). This rare tsunami of hardware development activity validates that, as with the iPod, Apple has again repositioned the market.
The iPad isn’t just about pad computing. Aside from marketing lessons, the iPad’s fast market entry confirms that computing is at an inflection point, and highlights many vital technology changes.
Being first helps, but Apple’s lead owes much to the magical software it creates for the company’s innovative devices.
And that’s saying a lot. Driven by three important new forces, today’s software development cycle is radically shorter and different from that of only five years ago.
First, software is no longer designed for individuals; it’s all about building in social interaction functionality.
Second, the availability of astonishing computing horsepower enables such magic as visualizations and 3-D modelling.
Third, the deep market penetration of mobile computing and smartphones – up to 40% of Canadians own one – and skyrocketing use challenge software developers. They must now build the right interface for each device platform while delivering the same user experience.
Mobile computing will probably be where Apple and other pad-makers eventually lose out. The best device is always the one you have with you.
Today, that means mobile devices are offering the same small size, lightweight, stellar battery life and connectivity that pad devices offer – but with much greater portability. Despite their coolness, today’s pads are too big for many people.
Regardless of device, the ability to connect everywhere is what’s driving the mobile revolution forward. And that’s where the seismic shift lies: in the range of new ways individuals will use portable computing to live, work and play.
Back to why pads are important market-shift indicators. We’re at the cusp of seeing new applications permeate the market.
To flatten business risk, companies must market to the right adopter group, rather than suffer the costs of significantly later adoption patterns, as is typical.
In the classic “diffusion of innovations” theory, there are five categories of user adoption. Each occupies a vital place in the value chain.
1. Innovators (2.5%): visionaries who “must have” new offerings. Usually better educated and richer, they know that being first isn’t hitch-free and tolerate some product issues. Price-insensitive, they bought the iPad without considering cost.
2. Early adopters (13.5%): this first visible wave of buyers is seen as an opinion leader. Though motivated by novelty, they show more care in choosing new products than innovators. They like being seen as influential, so are great word-of-mouth marketing. They will talk about problems as much as performance, blogging about iPad inadequacies.
3. Early majority buyers (34%): research before buying and try things more deliberately. This group is the “holy grail” of marketing and is responsive to industry luminaries and influencers. Buying when product costs are lower, sales volume is high and pricing is still premium, this group generates most of a product’s life profits. iPad is now selling to this group, so it has truly penetrated the market.
4. Late majority buyers (34%): default to skepticism about new offerings. They eventually buy if the price drops or they’re pressured into it somehow (or maybe react to unpredictable cultural, geographic or demographic factors).
Though price-sensitive, they still consider performance and expect support. They read about iPads and wonder, who needs one?
5. Laggards (16%): are so late to adopt that they end up buying version 1 as the next version is being released. And, because they’re late in a product’s life cycle, laggards see lowest price and support. Many haven’t heard of iPads or don’t see the point.
Where do you sit in the adoption curve? How can these lessons be applied to your business? •
Judy Bishop ([email protected]) is the managing partner of Bishop + Company, a provider of corporate and marketing services to changing companies since 1991. Her column appears monthly.
