Face it, we are a relatively small country with a relatively small sphere of influence. When we get a few moments on a bigger international stage, we not only gain a temporarily oversized self-image but want to examine in granular detail every gesture of what the bigger folks probably move beyond instantly.
It’s a little like when the boss saunters by in a busy schedule and makes some sort of casual remark – it sticks with us for ages, even if the boss forgets right away.
Witness Justin Trudeau’s trip to China: a couple of pleasant days of media attention abroad, some high-level meetings and public platitudes, but a very muddy picture of what’s to come. The tepid reviews have been far different than the lavished praise of the first-encounter-cum-bromance with Barack Obama.
There are some hidden truths and vital signs in the visit, though.
First, given the Canadian economy is at the behest of world trade, we should want a better trade deal with China. Even if there is no clear path to advance such talks arising from the prime minister’s trek, it’s inevitable we’ll be getting on that trail. The fragility of the Trans-Pacific Partnership was an ideal opportunity to diversify Asian trade benefits but, given the American political climate, we can start to speak of that opportunity in the past tense. It’s time to take our chances with China, then with others bilaterally.
Second, China wants to own or have (or both) our resources, so I share the view that if the Trudeau government is strategic, it will have to find a way to expand energy pipelines – at least the Kinder Morgan proposal, the least vexing of the pipeline options it has. Trudeau would trade some domestic political currency for a more substantial economic relationship. (Too much is made of the political consequence. In the boxing parlance he would understand, he would get a black eye but not a broken jaw, endure a standing eight count but not a knockout. It’s not as if there is a viable replacement government against the pipeline in the wings.)
And there should be little doubt that Canada is making its case on human rights – just subtly, not in the public shaming way of the social media era or the grand political gestures of old-style politics.
These are all matters of eventual influence, and we should find it redeeming that the Liberals will try to achieve what the Conservatives didn’t. We can only hope they’re not naive because a fair number of China experts are expressing some wariness of the engagement.
The Canadian gesture to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is the riskiest and most wide-eyed move. We do not know yet what Canada’s stake will be in a vehicle ostensibly designed to confer more multilateral opportunities for Canada and more multilateral economic influence for China. We do not particularly know if infrastructure funds aimed there will leave less room for those at home.
But if there was a gem to emerge from the visit, it was on this theme of infrastructure, and it came after the bilateral discussions and into the G20 meeting days later in Hangzhou. There, once again as a smaller player on the big stage, Canada earned some political points and peer credit for its emphasis on infrastructure investment.
Politicians love to get elected and re-elected by spending money, setting aside their anxieties about deficits, draining some decision-making power from central banks, and spurring short-term impetus to a humdrum domestic economy. Its ingredients are faster-acting than monetary policy, besides.
Plenty of countries are pursuing (Japan, China) or contemplating (the U.S. and U.K.) large infrastructure investments, and several G20 nations are watching the Canadian experiment to determine the impact.
Of all Trudeau’s talking in China, his actions will speak louder than words. Ultimately, the experiment in boosting our financial well-being by using infrastructure spending – provided we don’t get cold feet if the money is tight – would prove to be his most significant economic statement and greatest political accomplishment in winning over China.
Kirk LaPointe is Business in Vancouver’s vice-president of audience and business development
