Insofar as political dynasties go, the reign of Alberta’s Progressive Conservative party – in power since 1971 – is not the longest in history; there have been a few longer ones: Cuba at present or in Russia during the Soviet era. But they owed their success to less-than-democratic methods.
So when Alberta Premier Alison Redford won a majority government recently, extending the 41-year Tory party reign for another four years, it was an accomplishment.
The question is, what does it mean for British Columbia?
First, royalties and taxes are likely to remain where they are in Alberta, which means B.C. will need to remain competitive. Former premier Ed Stelmach imitated B.C.’s 1990s-era Glen Clark government and pummelled the resource industry (mining in the case of Clark; energy in the case of Stelmach). After Stelmach hiked royalties, and when drilling rigs began to move to Saskatchewan and south of the border, the then-premier reversed course. So Alberta PCs learned their lesson: royalties are like rents: raise them too high and you lose tenants. That mistake is not likely to happen again under Redford.
If anything, the rookie premier might make the opposite mistake: subsidize a variety of businesses, inside and outside of Alberta’s energy sector, in a mistaken attempt to artificially diversify the economy.
But that possibility aside, what else does a PC win in Alberta mean for B.C.?
For one thing, it will put more pressure on provincial budgets in both provinces. Redford won her leadership of the Alberta PCs last fall by appealing to public-sector unions, especially Alberta’s teachers union. She also sent bons mots to other government unions.
If that sounds odd, remember that in Alberta – and this is directly related to the fact the PCs have been the only government game in town for over four decades – interest groups of every stripe have thus joined that party.
That’s their democratic right. The budget result, though, is that Premier Redford owes public sector unions some large and expensive favours.
Given that Alberta’s public sector is already high-paid relative to other provinces – Alberta’s teachers are the highest paid in Canada – any further favours will pressure not only the Alberta budget but also those in other provinces as governments elsewhere try to compete with Alberta on salaries and benefits. That’s great for civil servants in the short term; not so great for taxpayers and sustainable budgeting, though.
The 12th straight PC victory also means the Alberta government will try to lobby for the Northern Gateway pipeline to cross British Columbia and will work with the federal Conservatives in Ottawa to that end.
On that issue, it’s a mistake to think Albertans care any less about the environment than British Columbians. It’s just a simple fact that moderates in both provinces understand that in the short to medium term the need and demand for oil or gas will not decline. Alternatives for a variety of human needs that depend on such fuels do not yet exist.
That means the Redford government will make continual overtures to the B.C. government, First Nations and others to recognize that reality.
Lastly, the Redford government is likely to be weak on the question of more Western power vis-à-vis the country’s other regions. Citizens in Alberta and British Columbia pay a lot of money in federal taxes, a large chunk of which is then transferred to have-not provinces through federal transfer payments.
Such transfers are mostly absurd because the net result is to transfer money from high-cost cities like Vancouver (think of your average home price) to low-cost places like Quebec City, St. John’s, Winnipeg and Charlottetown. It’s in the interest of the West in general to see such nonsense reformed. But Redford has given no signal that reforms to such absurd transfers are a priority or even that she understands what is at stake. •
Mark Milke is the editorial board chairman of C2C Journal (www.c2journal.ca), Canada’s journal of ideas. His column appears monthly in Business in Vancouver.
